STOCKS
Dow (24290.05, +0.24%) tested levels above 24500 yesterday before coming off from there. A fall towards 24000 looks likely in the next few sessions.
Dax (13058.55, +1.53%) attempted a rise to 13100 yesterday and has managed to stay above 13000. Near term could see some sideways consolidation within 13200-12900 region as mentioned yesterday.
Nikkei (22611.61, -0.42%) has come down but could possibly bounce back after testing 22250 in the near term. Overall the index could be ranged in the 22750-22250 region for the next few sessions.
Shanghai (3308.42, -0.04%) is almost stable and may attempt a rise towards 3350 while immediate support near 3300 holds. Only on a break below 3300 would we shift our focus on the downside. Near term view remains bullish.
Nifty (10127.75, +0.06%) is in the corrective dip phase and could well test 10050 on the downside before trying to move up from there. Maximum downside could be limited to 10050 from where the index could start bouncing back towards 10250 and higher. A beak below 10050-10000, if seen, could be indicative of a sharper fall for the medium to long term.
32500 is the immediate support which could push Sensex (32869.72, +0.11%) back towards 33500. A break below 32500 could validate a possible double top formation visible on the charts.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1275.80) is almost stable above support at 1260. The price would soon bounce back towards 1285-1290 region in the next few sessions.
WTI (57.56) and Brent (62.55) are trading a bit lower today but both have immediate support just below current levels which if holds, could push the prices towards higher levels of 59 and 64 respectively. At the same time, also note that the WTI has crucial long term resistance at 59 which if proves to be strong, may not let the price stay above 57 for long.
Copper (3.091) has supports near 3.00-3.05 region and while that holds, a rise towards 3.12-3.13 is possible in the near term. A break below 3.00, in the medium term could be vulnerable to a further fall towards 2.95 or lower but that is not taken into consideration just now as the price could trade in the 3.00-3.15 region for some more time.
FOREX
Dollar-Index (93.043) reached a high of 93.36 yesterday, going past resistance level at approx 93.25-93.30 on the daily charts; however it closed lower at 93.08 and is currently trading around similar levels. This might reflect a hold of resistance in the near term, with a dip towards immediate support at 92.75-92.80 likely within this week. Lack of significant strength in the dollar might even lead to the index dropping below 92.75 to test levels near 91.50 in this month. However, dollar strength could push it to test 93.75 on the daily line charts in a week’s time.
Euro (1.1874) saw a low of 1.1829 yesterday, thereby testing immediate support on the daily candle charts, but rose to close at 1.1864. This support (which would now be around 1.185-1.19 levels) seems to be holding strong for now and only a decisive move in dollar strength could bring about of a break of this support to test new support at approx 1.1775 on the 3 day candles. Dollar weakness could see breach of resistance (1.19) on the weekly line chart and a move towards 1.20-1.21.
Dollar-Yen (112.53) is maintaining its upmove and is likely to attempt levels around 113 within this week, with a test of resistance around 113.50 on the daily line charts likely in this month.
Pound (1.3467) tested resistance at 1.35 again during intra-day trading yesterday but came down to close at 1.3479. It is currently trading at similar levels and can be expected to stay within the channel between 1.35 and 1.335 for the next few sessions. Dollar weakness could make it test resistance at 1.36 on the weekly candles.
Dollar Rupee (64.3250) dipped below 64.30 yesterday to a low of 64.2825 but closed above that at 64.3750. It needs to be seen if dollar strength relative to the euro dips in the next few sessions, which could then dictate how the rupee moves. Currently, with Euro not gaining much strength, a rise of Dollar Rupee towards 64.60-80 can be expected.
INTEREST RATES
The US yield differentials have been falling sharply. The 10-5Yr (0.23%), 30-10Yr (0.39%) and the 30-5Yr (0.62%) have all come down to multi-year lows and look bearish for the next few sessions before they could recover.
The US 5Yr (2.15%) has moved up sharply and could head towards 2.25% in the near term. the 10YR (2.38%) and the 30Yr (2.77%) on the other hand have dipped from previous levels of 2.39% and 2.79% respectively. While the 5YR continues to rise and the 10 YR and the 30YR remains stable, the yield curve could flatten in the coming sessions.
The German-US 10Yr (-2.04%) came back to close at higher levels yesterday. The yield spread could now bounce back towards -2% in the near term.
