Key Developments
- Nvidia warned of a $5.5B charge due to U.S. export restrictions on its H20 GPUs to China. The U.S. now requires special licenses to export advanced chips.
- This triggered a global tech sell-off:
- Nvidia -5%, AMD -6%, Micron -3.5%, ASML -4.3%
- Broader tech names like Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Tesla also declined.
- U.S.-China trade tensions are escalating, with tariffs still active on Chinese goods while exemptions for smartphones and PCs appear temporary.
- Major U.S. indices are down >4% since Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2nd.
Forex Impact Analysis
- Investors await U.S. retail sales (expected +1.2%) and industrial production data, which could potentially trigger USD volatility.
- Fed remains in the spotlight amid sticky inflation and rising trade uncertainty.
- El-Erian warns of rising volatility ahead, citing political and central bank uncertainty.
Tech-driven risk aversion is positive for USD, especially against risk-linked currencies (AUD, NZD, GBP) and EM FX. Keep an eye on U.S.-China headlines, as further escalation may drag on global sentiment — with JPY and USD safe-haven pairs likely to benefit.
US100 – D1 Timeframe
The recent bearish break of structure on the daily timeframe chart of US100 set the tone for a bearish continuation of the original bearish impulse. The ongoing bullish retracement is inching closer to the rally-base-drop supply region, which sits within the key zone of the Fibonacci retracement tool.
US100 – H4 Timeframe
On the 4-hour timeframe chart of US100, there is a hidden SBR pattern, with the supply zone at the pattern’s peak fitting well into the 76% Fibonacci retracement area. The expectation here is the continuation of the bearish momentum following the rejection from the supply zone.
Analyst’s Expectations:
- Direction: Bearish
- Target- 16301.67
- Invalidation- 20389.89
