STOCKS
The Stock indices are all trading slightly higher today. Sideways consolidation is possible in the near term if not a immediate rise to higher levels.
Dow (23430.33, +0.31%) is almost stable. But while above 23200, there is some scope of eventually rising towards 23600. Sideways consolidation is likely to continue just now.
Dax (13058.66, +0.50%) is holding well above immediate support near 12900 and could at least trade sideways within 13000-12900 (max extension of 100points on either side), if not rising sharply above 13100 just now. A sustained break above 13100 could initiate a fresh rally back towards 13200-13300 in the near term.
Nikkei (22488.38, +1.02%) has got some support near 22200 and the bounce from there yesterday may sustain this week. Trade within 22800-22000 is likely in the next couple of sessions.
Shanghai (3408.64, +0.48%) tested levels near 3337 yesterday before closing near 3400. The sharp bounce from the low yesterday is indicative of near term bullishness and the index could head towards 3450 and higher in the near term.
Nifty (10298.75, +0.15%) could rally towards 10400-10500 in the coming sessions while above 10200. Note that 10200 is a decent medium term support and is likely to hold for now.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1279.87) has come off on slight rise in the US Dollar Index. If the Dollar Index continues to rise towards 94.50, there could be some more downside in Gold in the near term.
Brent (62.33) and WTI (56.50) are trading higher and look bullish for the near term. Brent could move up towards 63-64 while WTI is likely to head towards 58-59 levels.
Copper (3.0835) is now testing the earlier support turned resistance at 3.10 and while that holds, it could push the price back towards 3.05-3.00 levels in the near term.
FOREX
Dollar Index (94.05) has near term channel support near 93.50/60 and while that holds, the downside looks limited just now. While above 93.50/60, the index could gradually move up towards 94.50-95.00 soon. Near term looks bullish.
EURO (1.1735) could come off towards 1.1700 where a decent support could push it back to levels near 1.175-1.180, preventing a fall to 1.1650 just now. Either the price breaks below 1.17 to open up lower levels of 1.1650-1.1620 or bounces back from 1.17 itself, targeting higher levels of 1.18 in the medium term.
Dollar-Yen (112.538) moved up after testing 111.88 on the downside. While there is some scope of the US-Japan 10Yr yield spread (2.33%) to rise towards 2.36%, some rise in Dollar Rupee is possible in the near term with an eventual fall towards 111.
The Pound (1.3246) is headed towards 1.33 as expected. Near term looks bullish. A rejection from 1.33 or slightly higher levels is expected in the medium term.
The Aussie (0.7538) has surprised by trying to break below immediate support levels. But while above 0.75, there is still some hope of a bounce back towards 0.76-0.77 in the coming sessions.
Dollar-Rupee (65.1150) could test 65.25 on the upside. Overall broad trade region could be expected within 64.90-65.25 levels.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields are all testing support. There has been a slight bounce in the yields compared to yesterday’s levels, while the support holds, some more rise is on the cards. The 5Yr (2.09%), 10Yr (2.36%) and the 30Yr (2.78%) are trading higher and looks bullish in the near term.
The US-Japan 10Yr (2.33%) surprisingly bounced back instead of heading to lower levels. However, the current rise could be temporary as the medium term resistance near 2.36% may hold and push the yield spread back towards 2.25% and lower in the sessions to come. For now, while the yield spread is up, Nikkei and Dollar Yen could see interim rises in an overall medium term bearish scenario.
The German-US 10Yr (-2%) could test medium term support near -2.05% and while that holds a bounce back in both the yield spread and Euro is possible maybe by the end of the week.
