Although today is a public holiday in the US (Martin Luther King Jr. Day), financial markets are unlikely to remain calm, as traders and investors will be closely watching the inaugural speech of Donald Trump, the 47th President-elect, scheduled for 20:00 GMT+3.
Trump’s speech could impact gold prices in USD, particularly if it addresses:
→ Monetary policy: With current Federal Reserve rates trending lower, non-yielding assets like gold may become more attractive.
→ International trade: If Trump’s remarks on tariffs are particularly bold, gold’s status as a “safe haven” asset could boost its appeal.
→ The dollar’s value: Policies aimed at strengthening the USD and reducing national debt may influence gold prices inversely.
Technical analysis of the XAU/USD chart shows that gold prices are trading within a narrowing triangle:
→ The lower boundary is supported by the ascending channel that began in March 2024.
→ Resistance sits at $2,720 per ounce. Although this level served as support in October, bulls have struggled to break it since December (as indicated by the arrow).
While bullish sentiment dominates the gold market (evident from the orange trend lines relevant for January), Trump’s speech could trigger volatility spikes. These fluctuations may shift the current sentiment balance and spark the formation of a new trend for XAU/USD.
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