Fundamental review
Recent data signals a resilient US labor market:
- Weekly jobless claims dropped by 10,000 to 201,000 — the lowest level since February.
- The latest JOLTS report shows job openings hitting a six-month high, driven by business services.
According to Bloomberg, traders have now pushed back expectations for a Fed rate cut to July.
Given these indicators, the US economy appears stable rather than overheated, suggesting that the upcoming NFP could exceed forecasts — a bullish sign for the USD.
Trading ideas
XAUUSD
XAUUSD is moving upwards, aiming to retest the FVG zone at the 2675 resistance level, aligned with the golden Fibonacci ratio. 50-MA crosses the 100-MA up, giving fuel for the short-term rise to the FVG with the further correction to the 2640 support at the 38.2 Fibonacci.
EURUSD
EURUSD navigates downwards within a trendline and is currently facing the 1.0300 support.
The 100-MA crosses the 200-MA down, giving a sign of a global downtrend for the Euro. The targets are 1.0070 at the 261.0 Fibonacci ratio.
