- Australia’s economic rollercoaster; Aussie in new negative paths
- New Zealand’s challenging year; Kiwi may dive further
- Canada’s economic rebound; Loonie unlocks new lows
AUDUSD: Bearish sentiment starts in 2024
Australia’s economy demonstrated a mixed performance this year. The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.35% to combat persistent underlying inflation, which remained around 3.5%. Economic growth was sluggish, with GDP increasing by only 0.8% over the year. The labor market showed resilience, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% in October. The Australian dollar fluctuated due to global economic uncertainties and domestic policy decisions. In 2025, the economic outlook is cautiously optimistic. The RBA is expected to gradually reduce the cash rate as inflationary pressures ease, aiming for the 2-3% target range by mid-to-late 2025. GDP growth is projected to improve but remain below trend, supported by government spending and a recovery in household consumption. The labor market is anticipated to stabilize, with unemployment rates potentially rising slightly as demand and supply balance out.
AUDUSD has lost around 5% during 2024, but from a technical standpoint, the pair is down more than 8% following the significant pullback from the 20-month high of 0.6940. The commodity currency dived toward a fresh 13-month low at 0.6340, holding beneath the long-term ascending trend line. In 2025, the price might see further descending movements with immediate support levels coming from 0.6270 and 0.6170. However, a potential upside retracement may send traders to the 0.6440 barrier, which holds above the uptrend line ahead of the 50- and 100-week SMAs around 0.6600. Technical oscillators are endorsing the negative scenario.
NZDUSD: Is it time to exit from the trading range?
In 2024, New Zealand’s economy faced significant challenges. The RBNZ reduced the official cash rate to 4.25% to stimulate economic activity amid weak performance and rising unemployment. Inflation fell to 2.2%, within the RBNZ’s target range, but domestic prices, especially for services, remained high. Despite signs of recovery, the outlook remained cautious with expectations of further interest rate cuts. Looking ahead to 2025, the RBNZ aims to keep inflation within the 1-3% range, with the OCR potentially dropping to 3.3%. GDP growth is forecasted at 2.1%, with unemployment around 5.2%. Wage growth is expected to be moderate at 2.8%.
NZDUSD has been in a consolidation area since January 2023 with the upper boundary at the 0.6380 resistance level and the lower boundary at the 0.5770 support. Currently, the market is facing a real struggle near the aforementioned support, recording a new 26-month low of 0.5752. More steeper decreases could open the way for the next round numbers, such as 0.5700 and 0.5600, before meeting the bottom from October 2022 at 0.5510. Alternatively, a higher move could support the trading range once more, with the resistance line located within the 0.6040-0.6100 area, which encompasses the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Momentum oscillators are mirroring the descending movement.
USDCAD: In new highs before 2025
Canada’s economy faced several challenges during the year. The BoC reduced the policy rate to 3.75% by October to counteract weak economic growth and rising unemployment. Inflation fell to around 2%, aligning with the BoC’s target range, but the distribution of inflation rates across different components remained uneven. The Canadian dollar experienced volatility, influenced by global economic conditions and domestic policy decisions. Despite these efforts, economic growth was sluggish, with GDP growth remaining modest. 2025’s economic outlook is cautiously optimistic. The BoC is expected to continue reducing interest rates as inflationary pressures ease, aiming to support economic activity. GDP growth is projected to improve gradually, supported by stronger consumer spending and business investment. The labor market is anticipated to stabilize, although unemployment may remain slightly elevated.
USDCAD has been creating an intriguing bullish rally lately, sending the market to a fresh four-and-a-half-year high of 1.4244, following the strong bounce off 1.3420. The next resistance line traders should keep in mind is the April 2020 peak at 1.4265. Even higher, the March 2020 peak at 1.4680 looks to be a critical level, but first the bulls need to overcome the psychological marks of 1.4300, 1.4400, and 1.4500. On the downside, immediate support could come from 1.3945, ahead of the 50-day SMA at 1.3675 and the 1.3640 barricade. The technical oscillators are showing some mixed signals, with the RSI indicating an overstretched market and the MACD still extending its bullish momentum.
