- USDCAD falls sharply, accelerating prevailing retreat
- Both the RSI and the MACD detect bearish momentum
- A break below 1.3425 could extend the fall towards 1.3350
- For the outlook to brighten, a rebound above 1.3645 may be needed
USDCAD fell sharply on Tuesday, extending the retreat that started on Thursday after the pair hit resistance at 1.3645, slightly above the lower bound of the sideways range that contained most of the price action between April and August.
Yesterday’s tumble was paused today near the 1.3425 support, which stopped the pair from falling further back in February and March, but with no signs of a bullish reversal, the likelihood of the bears staying in the driver’s seat remains high.
Both the RSI and the MACD are detecting strong downside momentum. The former is well below 50, near its 30 line, though it has rebounded from near 30. The MCAD is below both its zero and trigger lines, pointing down. The RSI’s rebound implies that a minor rebound may be on the cards before the next leg south.
If so, the bears may be tempted to recharge from near the 1.3475 level and push the action below 1.3425, This could pave the way towards the 1.3350 zone, marked by the low of January 31, the break of which could allow extensions towards the low of January 5, at around 1.3285.
For the outlook to start changing to bullish, USDCAD may need to recover all the way up to the 1.3645 area. A break higher will confirm a higher high and may encourage advances towards the 1.3750 zone, which acted as the upper boundary of the aforementioned sideways range.
To sum up, USDCAD fell sharply yesterday, and although it paused near a key support zone, the technical picture suggests that the bears may stay in control for a while longer.
