Despite today’s public holiday in Japan, yen buyers remain active.
As shown on the USD/JPY chart, today’s candle low has dropped below the psychological level of 140 yen per dollar. The last time this exchange rate was seen was on 28 July 2023.
On 11 August, when analysing the USD/JPY chart, we:
→ drew a descending channel (shown in red);
→ plotted a resistance line (shown in orange);
→ predicted the possibility of a bearish attack on the 140 yen per dollar level.
Current market sentiment is influenced by:
→ comments from Bank of Japan representative Junko Nakagawa, who stated last week that interest rates will continue to rise if economic and inflation forecasts align with expectations;
→ expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. A shift towards monetary easing now seems almost inevitable, with the main question being whether the rate will be reduced by 25 or 50 basis points.
The technical analysis of the USD/JPY chart shows that the median of the descending channel acts as resistance (as indicated by the arrow). This suggests that bears remain in control. It’s likely that these market sentiments will persist until Wednesday (21:00 GMT+3), when the Federal Reserve announces its decision – undoubtedly the key event of the week.
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