On 9 August, our analysis of the long-term BTC/USD chart noted that Bitcoin’s price was at a crossroads, moving within the bounds of two channels:
→ A bullish channel (shown in blue), which began forming in 2023 on the back of Bitcoin ETF approval rumours;
→ A bearish channel (shown in red), which started taking shape in March 2024, when the effect of Bitcoin ETF approval (which actually occurred on 11 January) seemed to have reached its peak, helping Bitcoin reach an all-time high.
Which path has the price taken?
Current technical analysis of the BTC/USD chart indicates that bearish arguments are now more compelling:
→ Since 9 August, attempts to return to the bullish channel have been sporadic and lack continuity;
→ Conversely, the price shows signs of “magnetism” (shown in red oval) towards the median line of the descending channel, confirming its relevance;
→ The growth attempt on 23 August faced resistance at the psychological level of $65k (shown with an arrow).
The decline in BTC/USD in late August was further impacted by Binance’s freezing of accounts linked to Palestinian military groups, undermining Bitcoin’s image as an anonymous and decentralised currency.
Under these conditions, it is reasonable to expect a bearish autumn, with more signs of weakness for buyers on the BTC/USD chart. It is possible that by the end of the year, we might see a new push towards the $50k level.
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