Yesterday, important U.S. inflation data was released, as reported by ForexFactory:
→ Core CPI (MoM): actual = 0.2%, forecast = 0.2%; previous = 0.1%;
→ CPI (YoY): actual = 2.9%, forecast = 3.0%; previous = 3.0%.
Today, market participants learned about the change in the UK’s monthly GDP: actual = 0.0%, forecast = 0.0%; previous = 0.4%.
However, these news releases had little impact on the GBP/USD exchange rate, likely because the actual figures were in line with expectations.
Today’s technical analysis of the GBP/USD chart shows that the price is consolidating within a narrowing triangle (marked in green). The upper line of this triangle aligns with a fan line that has been expanding downwards, with price action tracing the fan’s contours since the second half of July.
Which Way Will the Triangle Break?
If the bulls take the initiative and attempt to break upwards out of the triangle, they may quickly encounter resistance around the 1.2900 level—this is not only a round psychological number but also the 50% retracement level of the bearish impulse from the July 17 peak to the August 8 low (A→B).
Today, data on U.S. retail sales and the labour market will be released at 15:30 (GMT+3). There’s a possibility these reports could surprise the market, leading to sharp movements in GBP/USD and disrupting the current state of temporary stability.
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