GBPJPY has been neutral since peaking at 152.85 in September, consolidating in a broad range above the mid-point of the rise from 141.34 to 152.85.
Near-term risk is tilted to the downside as the market has dropped below the 200-moving average on the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at 148.40, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level which has been tested a few times. An extension lower would bring the 50% Fibonacci into view at a psychological level of 147.00. Below this, the 61.8% Fibonacci at 145.70 is a critical level, which if broken would shift the bias to bearish to target the 141.34 low.
To the upside, resistance levels exist at the 200-MA at 149.45, at 150.05 (23.6% Fibonacci) and then at the key 152.00 level. From here, the 152.85 peak comes into sight and rising above this would confirm the resumption of the uptrend from 141.34.
In the near term, the bias is neutral to bearish but since momentum is weak (neutral RSI), this points to more consolidation during the next few trading sessions.
