In our analysis of the long-term BTC/USD chart on 22 July, we noted that:
→ From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin’s price is moving within an ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ On a shorter-term scale, the price has dropped from the upper to the lower boundary of the channel, forming a channel shown in red.
→ From a technical analysis standpoint, this red channel looks like a correction within the larger ascending channel.
→ Therefore, a breakout above the upper boundary of the red channel would pave the way for a resumption of the upward trend.
Today, Bitcoin’s price slightly exceeds the upper boundary of the red channel, influenced by Trump’s statements at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville. According to him:
→ The US should become the capital of cryptocurrencies;
→ If elected, Trump plans to fire Gary Gensler, the head of the SEC, known for his negative stance on cryptocurrencies.
→ Regulation will be more lenient, with potential reductions in sentences for cases related to cryptocurrencies.
However, objectively:
→ These statements are, so far, just campaign promises;
→ It is still too early to say that Bitcoin’s price has firmly established itself above the red channel. The nearby psychological level of $70k could have a significant impact.
Technical analysis of the BTC/USD chart today shows that the price is moving upwards within a trajectory marked by black lines. How sustainable are these optimistic sentiments? Crucial information for analysis will come from Bitcoin’s price action during the week, which is filled with important events. Arguably, the most significant event is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and subsequent comments from Powell, scheduled for Wednesday at 21:00 GMT+3.
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