- USDJPY edges higher after the pullback from 38-year high pauses
- The risk of a Japanese intervention is active at current levels
- Momentum indicators provide overbought signals
USDJPY experienced a minor setback from its 38-year high of 161.95, which quickly came to a halt at the April peak of 160.20. The pair is on track to revisit its recent multi-year high, but traders should be cautious as the market has approached levels that the Japanese side might be willing to defend.
Should bullish pressures persist, the price could initially challenge the 38-year high of 161.95, registered on July 3. Further advances could then cease at 163.55, which is the 200.0% Fibonacci extension of the 151.90-140.24 downleg. A break above that territory could pave the way for the 165.00 psychological mark.
Alternatively, if the pair comes under selling pressure, immediate support could be found at the April peak of 160.20, which also provided downside protection in July. Failing to halt there, the price could descend towards the 161.8% Fibo of 159.10. Even lower, the 138.2% Fibo of 156.35 could prove to be a tough barricade for the bears to overcome.
In brief, despite some near-term weakness in the aftermath of a fresh 38-year peak, USDJPY has been inching back higher. Therefore, we could see some heightened volatility moving forward as the price is trading near levels that could trigger another intervention by the Japanese authorities.
