As shown in the USD/JPY chart, today the rate is around 160.58 yen per US dollar.
Bloomberg reports the words of Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki:
→ Stable dynamics are important for currency rates.
→ Sharp unilateral movements are highly undesirable.
→ We will closely monitor the situation and take action if necessary.
Such rhetoric from officials seems not to have deterred the bulls, who are keeping the rate above the April high (when the Bank of Japan intervened in the market to support the weakened yen, resulting in a 4.75% decline over 5 days).
In our analysis from 24 June, we noted that:
→ the price is moving within a large upward channel (shown in blue),
→ and the local rise (framed by orange lines) could push the price to the boundaries of the blue channel.
Updated technical analysis of USD/JPY shows that:
→ the price continues to hold within the orange channel;
→ in the coming days, the April high of 160.20 yen per dollar may act as support after being broken, reinforced by the median line of the orange channel.
It seems the bulls are in control, highlighted by the RSI indicator, which has not dropped below the 50 level since mid-June.
However, everything could change suddenly with the release of US inflation data tomorrow at 15:30 GMT+3. It is possible that the data will indicate rising inflation (as it did in Australia this week), and the US dollar will strengthen further, pushing the USD/JPY rate even higher – potentially prompting another intervention by the Bank of Japan.
Be prepared for possible spikes in volatility.
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