FOREX
Dollar Index (94.83) has come off a bit from a high near 95.15 yesterday. We can still look for further rise towards 95.50 (medium term) and even 97.00 (long term) while the Supports at 94.50 and 94.00 remain intact.
Similarly, the Euro (1.1595) saw some short-covering from 1.1553, just above our target region of 1.1550-30. Resistance at 1.1620 is still valid. Need to see if it can push the Euro down to lower levels.
Dollar-Yen (113.78) again rose above 114.00 yesterday to a high of 114.34, but has come off again from there. It is running into sustained selling every time it rises past 114.00. This is because the US-Japan 10Yr Spread (2.28%) has been coming down and has broken a near-term rising trendline.
Dollar-Yuan (6.6393) has risen afresh and Dollar-Rupee has opened higher near 65.15. If the rise sustains, we may have to look for 65.40 as well.
INTEREST RATES
The German-US 10Yr Spread (-1.98%) has been rising from -2.05% since 30th Oct, but has Resistance near -1.95% and may be seen as bearish while below -1.95%.
Next week’s US CPI release on 15th Nov will be important to see how much it reflects the recent increase in Crude, as that will influence the US Yields.
The US 10Yr (2.31%) has Support at 2.24%, but maybe there can be a near-term dip to test that Support, before a bounce takes place later in Nov. We also need to see if the US 5Yr (1.98%) will dip towards 1.80% or not. But, the US 30Yr (2.77%) may have a Support near current levels. Let us see if it bounces or not.
The Japanese 5Yr (-0.14%) has come down to test Support and should be a candidate for a bounce. The Japanese 10Yr (0.03%) too might have Support near 0.01%.
