Is US 100 Setting Course for New Record Highs?

• US 100 enters recovery mode, stays above uptrend line
• MACD and RSI suggest that momentum may turn positive
• A break above 18,350 will take the index into uncharted territory
• A break below 15,700 may turn the broader outlook bearish

The US 100 cash index entered a recovery mode last week, after hitting support near the 16,980 zone. Overall, the index is trading above a long-term uptrend line drawn from the low of January 6, 2023, as well as above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). These technical signs paint a positive broader outlook.

The MACD is rebounding, emerging above its trigger line, and now looks to be headed towards zero, while the RSI has recovered as well after hitting 30 and is now testing its 50 line. Both indicators suggest that the short-term momentum is likely to turn positive again soon, which means further recovery for US 100.

Nonetheless, for the prevailing long-term uptrend to resume, the price may need to clearly break and close above the 18,350 territory, which has been acting as a ceiling since the beginning of March. A move higher would take the index into uncharted territory and perhaps encourage the bulls to aim for the psychological round number of 20,000 or the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level of the November 2021 – October 2022 decline, at around 20,700.

For the bigger picture to darken, a break below the key support area of 15,700 may be needed. The price would be below the aforementioned uptrend line and below all three of the plotted moving averages, which may encourage the bears to dive all the way down to the 14,090 barrier, marked by the low of October 26.

To recap, US 100 has been recovering ground lately, but the move signaling the resumption of its prevailing long-term uptrend may be a decisive break and a daily close above 18,350.