The halving (reduction of block mining rewards) is expected to occur on April 19-20.
Theoretically, Bitcoin mining will become less profitable, leading to a reduction in coin supply. Given unchanged demand, this should drive up the BTC/USD price. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has forecasted that the cryptocurrency market cap will double by the end of 2024, reaching $5 trillion, with Bitcoin’s halving contributing to this growth.
In practice, Bitcoin price is influenced by too many factors to conclusively prove the bullish impact of halving. For instance, looking at history, the last halving occurred on May 11, 2020, and the price increased by approximately 12% in the following week. On the other hand, today’s Bitcoin price might already reflect the imminent halving.
Nevertheless, the market currently shows predominantly positive sentiment, as over the weekend, BTC/USD price rose by around 2.5%.
According to the technical analysis of the BTC/USD chart today:
→ From April 2-4, there was no downward pressure on the market to push the price below the lower boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue), which remains relevant.
→ Conversely, a series of higher lows forming since April 2 indicates bullish intentions to break above the descending channel (shown in red).
Therefore, the approaching halving and associated positive expectations could lead to:
→ Breaking above the consolidating zone (shown with black lines).
→ Overcoming a significant resistance level near the psychological mark of $70,000 per coin.
In this scenario, the nearest target for bulls could be the median line of the blue ascending channel.
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