STOCKS
Dow (23377.24, +0.12%) closed at slightly higher levels but overall remains stable near current levels. 23250-23200 could act as an immediate and decent support for the coming sessions which could again push the index up towards 23500-23750 levels.
Dax (13229.57, +0.09%) looks bullish for the coming sessions and could head towards 13300-13500 levels in the near to medium term.
The fall in Dollar Yen from levels near 114.50 mentioned yesterday has not sustained, bringing a bounce yesterday. Nikkei (22324.64, +1.42%) also opened with a gap up and is trading higher almost certain to test the 22666 levels that we have been mentioning for quite sometime now. Near term looks bullish.
Shanghai (3398.17, +0.14%) tested 3410 on the upside but is trading at lower levels just now. Overall the 3425-3360 region is likely to hold for some more time. No major movement expected outside the given range just now.
10400 is holding so far in Nifty (10335.30, -0.27%). Looking at the 3-day candles a short correction is expected in the near term heading towards 10200-10000 levels before resuming the upward rally. In case, the index fails to see a correction and breaks above 10400, we could see a test of 10500-10600 levels but that is the less preferred scenario while below 10400.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1269.68) may trade above 1260 for some time. A break below 1260 could open up downside towards 1240 which could be tested in November. Else a bounce back from 1260 would be the preferred scenario just now.
Silver (16.73) could test 16.50 on the downside before bouncing back again towards 17 in the coming sessions.
Brent (61.23) is trading above important resistance near 61 as seen on the weekly candles. If the rise sustains, 63 would be the next immediate target on the upside. Else a short dip from current levels is a possibility.
WTI (54.66) has some more room on the upside on the 3-day candles and could test 55-56 on the upside before starting a short term correction towards 53 again. Near term looks bullish followed by a correction thereafter.
Copper (3.1435) has risen from levels above 3.05 support and while that holds, the price could be ranged within 3.17-3.05 region for a few sessions.
FOREX
As it turns out, Dollar-Yen (113.87) did not break below 113.00 and has moved up sharply instead, pulling Euro-Yen (132.50) along with it, which has been helped by a bit or recovery in the Euro (1.1635) as well. The Dollar Index (94.67) remains strong.
The rise in Dollar-Yen (113.87), which negates the chances of a near-term fall to 112, has been aided by a bit of recovery in US yields yesterday after the slide on Monday. 113.00 is now established as a near term Support and a test of 114.50+ again comes into the picture. Intra-day Supports seen at 113.60 and 113.00.
The Euro-Yen (132.50) has disappointed by not falling towards 130 and bouncing back from 131.50 instead. Need to see if it manages to rise past intra-week Resistance in the 132.93-133.35 region now.
Although the Euro moved up to 1.1661 yesteday, there’s a small Bear Flag which could yet push the Euro down to the Bear SHS target near 1.15 if the market remains below 1.1660 today. Let us see how this unfolds today, especially with the FOMC in the evening.
As expected, the Pound (1.3275) has moved up to the upper end of the 1.31-33 range and might try and move down again towards 1.31 in the coming days. The Aussie (0.7665) dipped yesterday instead of moving up further, but the Support at 0.7630-20 is holding as of now. Need to see if this Support holds/ breaks over the next couple of days. We are ambivalent.
Dollar-Yuan (6.6268) ought to be moving up towards 6.70 in the coming weeks, but seems to be taking time for it. Dollar-Rupee (64.75) might well find Support in the 64.70-60 region today.
INTEREST RATES
US FOMC today. Market looking to see what is the outlook on Inflation in the wake of recent strong data like the GDP (+3.03%) and Core CPI (+2.23%). Bond Yields have picked up a bit again yesterday after having fallen the day before. At best the 30Yr (2.88%) might move sideways between 2.75-3.00% in November before trying to break higher later.
The US Yield Curve is flattening again, with the 30-5 down to 0.87% and 30-10 down to 0.50%. Both can dip by another 1bp.
As Dollar-Yen (113.87) surprised by moving up yesterday, need to watch whether the US-Japan 10Yr Spread (2.31%) will bounce from current levels today.
