- AUDUSD posts a new negative wave
- RSI looks oversold
- 50- and 200-period SMAs ready for bearish cross
AUDUSD is plunging towards a fresh one-month low of 0.6606 today, confirming the negative structure that started from 0.6870.
Technically, the short-term risk is leaning to the downside. The MACD oscillator is extending its negative momentum beneath its trigger line in the bearish territory; however, the RSI is holding beneath the 30 level but is ticking marginally up, suggesting that the latest spike in the price is overdone.
Given the current negative momentum, the question now is whether the pair will stay resilient above the 0.6610 key region. A clear step below it would press the price towards the 0.6540 support, registered on December 13.
In this case, traders will wait for a close above the 0.6640 resistance and, more importantly, beyond the 0.6675 barricade which overlaps with the 20-period simple moving average (SMA), and the 50- and the 200-period SMAs around 0.6690 to upgrade this outlook. Then, the next battle could occur somewhere around the 0.6730 hurdle.
To sum up, the latest bearish spike in AUDUSD has not excited traders. An extension below 0.6610 would confirm the current negative structure. Note that a bearish cross between the 50- and 200-period SMAs is expected in the next few 4-hour sessions.
