STOCKS
Dow (23434.19, +0.14%) is almost stable in the 23250-23500 region but could eventually attempt a rise to 23750. Near term looks range bound with chances of moving up further in the medium term.
Dax (13217.54, +0.64%) looks strong just now and could move up in the coming sessions towards 13500. Bulls are dominant and could take the index higher in the coming weeks.
22666 is the next important resistance on Nikkei (21991.16, -0.08%) and the index could be eventually heading towards it. Before that the interim target of 22250 remains intact for the coming sessions.
Shanghai (3377.92, -1.14%) fell sharply in early trade today losing all the gains seen last week. Now the broad 3350-3430 region is likely to hold in the near term bringing in a bounce in the index within the next couple of sessions.
Nifty (10323.05, -0.20%) has resistance near 10365 on the daily charts. While that holds, the index could come off towards 10250 or lower in the near term before again resuming the upward rally. Near term looks bearish while below 10365.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1271.52) is trading above important support region of 1250-1260 and while that holds could possibly bounce back towards 1290-1300 levels in the near term. That could well go with the resistance on the US Dollar Index which has a decent resistance near 95.00-95.20 which is likely to hold for now.
Brent (60.34) has moved up as expected. Resistance near 61 is likely to hold pushing the crude price to lower levels of 58.
WTI (53.91) is trading just below immediate resistance and if that holds, the price can come down in the next few sessions towards 53.00 or even lower.
Copper (3.0975) has broken below 3.10 much faster than expected maybe due to the fall In the Chinese stock index. Near to medium term looks bearish.
FOREX
Maybe the markets will be a little quiet for a couple of days after last week’s volatility. Also, the FOMC is coming up on Wednesday.
The Euro (1.1610), which saw of a low of 1.1573 on Friday, is likely to have Support at 1.1510 while the Dollar Index (94.82) has immediate Resistance at 95.00-20. Both these Support and Resistance could turn out to be relatively strong.
Dollar-Yen (113.65) has come off from Friday’s high of 114.45, just below the stated Resistance at 114.50. A break below 113.50 (possible) can lead to test of 113.10-00. Overall upside might be limited to 115.00 in the medium term.
The Euro-Yen (131.92) fell further on Friday and the market might try to explore prospects of fall towards 130 in the next few weeks. However, immediate Support is seen in the 131.50-35 region.
The Pound (1.3138) dipped to 1.3068 on Friday. It has medium term Support at 1.3070-40 now and may trade sideways between 1.3040-3300 for some days. The Aussie (0.7678)is finding some Support in the 0.7630-20 region. Below this, there is a jumble of Supports down to 0.7520-00. Expect messy trade between 0.77-76 for a couple of days. The earlier anticipated fall towards 0.7520 might not be easy.
Dollar-Yuan (6.6438) seems to be on a slow rise towards 6.67. Dollar-Rupee (65.045) might be quiet between 64.90-65.20 for a couple of days, deciding the future course of action.
INTEREST RATES
US FOMC on Wednesday. Will the Fed surprise with an earlier than expected rate hike? By the presence of immediate Resistances at 3.00% on the 30Yr (2.94%), at 2.50% on the 10Yr (2.43%) and near 2.20% on the 5Yr (2.04%), it might seem that they will not try to surprise the market.
The US Yield Curve (30-10 Spread 0.51% and 30-5 Spread 0.90%) could flatten a bit again, with the Near end moving up a little more than the Middle and Far end sections.
A rate hike, if it happens on Wednesday, can lead to volatility because it is not expected.
