- US 500 completes 8 green weeks
- Overall trend remains overwhelmingly positive
The US 500 cash index rose to its highest level of 4,801 in at least two years. The index is recording the eighth straight green week following the strong rebound off the ascending trend line and the 4,120 support level.
Weekly oscillators suggest that upside momentum is still gaining steam, reflecting the latest bullish rally in the market. The RSI has turned up and is ready to cross above the 70 level, while the MACD is extending its positive move above its trigger and zero lines.
If buyers maintain an upside rally and surpass the previous peak of 4,807, recorded in January 2022, it may push the price into uncharted territory and shift attention towards significant psychological levels, where traders may position their stop orders, potentially impeding further price increases. From this perspective, the key levels to monitor are 4,900 and 5,000.
Now should sellers take back control, the first obstacle to the downside might be the previous peak of 4,635, which has acted as strong resistance in recent months. If violated, the spotlight would then shift to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward move from 3,500 to 4,801 at 4,495. Beneath this line, the 4,430 inside swing high, taken from the peak on October 15, which overlaps with the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) would be tested ahead of the long-term uptrend line and the 100-week SMA at 4,190.
Summarizing, the long-term outlook remains clearly positive. A decisive break below the ascending trend line is needed to bring that into doubt, although a trend reversal would require much heavier declines than that.
