- EURUSD holds in trading range in weekly chart
- 50-week SMA acts as strong support
- RSI and stochastic suggest more losses
As the year is coming to an end, EURUSD’s market price is holding slightly higher than at the beginning of 2023. The pair is consolidating within a consolidation area with upper boundary the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) around 1.1150, despite the move above it in July, and lower boundary the ten-month low of 1.0450.
Currently, the price is testing the 50-week SMA at 1.0800, which is acting as strong support level for the bulls. Weekly oscillators suggest that upside momentum is losing steam, reflecting the latest pullback in the market. The RSI has turned down in the positive territory, while the stochastic oscillator posted a bearish crossover within its %K and %D lines in the overbought area, indicating bearish retracement. However, the MACD oscillator is flattening near its zero level, mirroring the bigger neutral outlook in the pair.
In case buyers take back control and pierce above the 200-week SMA of 1.1150, that would bring the price towards the 17-month high of 1.1275. Surpassing this level, the door could open for the 1.1500 psychological mark, registered in February 2022 ahead of the 1.1690 resistance, which would potentially be tested during next year.
Now should sellers stay in charge, the first obstacle to the downside might be the 100-week SMA at 1.0650, which has acted both as support and resistance in recent weeks. If violated, the spotlight would then shift to the 1.0450 barrier, which halted the retreat in early October.
Summarizing, the long-term outlook remains neutral. A decisive break above 1.1275 is needed to bring the positive outlook back into play. On the other hand, a decline below 1.0450 could switch the bias to bearish.
 around 1.1150, despite the move above it in July, and lower boundary the ten-month low of 1.0450.){kind=link}