- OPEC+ decision made bigger by four-day delay
- Global economic outlook to impact the group’s cuts?
- Brent consolidating near recent lows
The OPEC+ meeting will be this week’s most impactful event in oil markets. Not just because any decision could have direct consequences for price and therefore inflation but also due to the meeting already being pushed back by four days, so there’s clearly some disagreement within the alliance.
The group has always found a way to get an agreement over the line before, even if that means the biggest producers taking on more of the additional commitments so it’s probably safe to say something similar will be achieved this week.
But the question is how far they’ll push it, given the recent trend in oil prices and increasing concerns around global growth next year.
Consolidation below 200-day SMA
Brent has fallen quite far over the last month but since breaking below the 200/233-day simple moving average band, it appears to have stabilized.
Brent Crude Daily
Source – OANDA on Trading View
Clearly, a lot now hangs on the outcome of the meeting and just how committed the alliance – Saudi Arabia and Russia, in particular – is to cutting output.
The most clear level of support below is $78, around the November low, with resistance then falling around $82.50 where past support coincides with the 200/233-day SMA band. A break of either may only come after the announcement but once it does happen, it could get very interesting.
