Crude oil bounced sharply back in October after attacks between Israel and Hamas. We have seen a jump of around 10% on crude oil to $90 in just a few days. In fact, back then, analysts started calling for $100 per barrel, so for me it was a bit overcrowded expectation, and that’s why we expected the opposite. Keep in mind that the market is the most sensitive when the news comes out, but then, after a few days the dust settles, and trading goes back to normal. And thats exactly what I have been expecting; a continuation lower, which makes sense from an Elliott wave perspective as energy showed us a top formation already at the end of September at 92-93 area. That was an end of an impulsive recovery from May to October, which we see it as first higher degree leg A of a three-wave A-B-C recovery, so more upside is still expected for wave C, ideally now as current A-B-C subwaves in wave B are coming into some attractive support. We are tracking final stages of wave C of B that can ideally find the base at the former wave 4 swing low, between 50% – 61,8% Fibonacci retracement that comes around $76-78 area.
The main reason why Crude oil can see another recovery is also the energy sector (XLE), which we see it consolidating within a bullish running triangle pattern for wave (4) that can push the price into all-time highs for wave (5).
As soon as Crude oil and XLE charts complete their corrections, this is when we can expect a continuation higher, ideally now at the end of 2023 or at the beginning of 2024.
