The exchange rate has finally made a breakout from the medium-term ascending channel. The plunge was caused by a rebound from the upper-trend line of the junior descending channel that was additionally backed up by the 100-hour SMA near 1,281.00. In the meantime, narrowing fluctuations of the rate indicate that the above channel is gradually transforming into the falling wedge formation. If this is the case, then a combined support formed by the lower line of the pattern in conjunction with the weekly S1 at 1,269.58 is expected to neutralize the fall after release of information on the US purchase orders. There are similar expectations for the opposite direction, which should be reliably secured by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs that are slipping along the resistance line of the wedge.
