STOCKS
Dow (23441.76, +0.72%) is back into the rally and yesterday’s mentioned correction has not seen follow through to extend the dip further. Bulls continue to remain strong and may continue to dominate prices for the coming sessions. Test of 23500-24000 if seen would not be a surprise.
Dax (13013.19, +0.08%) is trading below immediate resistance near 13060-13100 and while that holds, the index could be trading within 13100-12900 region before deciding n further direction. For now 13100 seems to be an important resistance which could probably push the price to levels below 12900 in the medium term. Note a break above 13100, if seen would turn very bullish for Dax for the coming weeks.
Nikkei (21830.78, +0.12%) has some room on the upside on the weekly candles and could test levels near 22500 before facing some rejection from there back to levels near 22000-21500 in the coming weeks. For now, the uptrend remains intact with immediate target of 22000 and higher. Resistance on Dollar Yen (113.88) near 114.50 on the weekly would be crucial to keep an eye on. A sustained break above 114.50-115.00 if seen would invite fresh bulls and open up higher targets for the Dollar Yen.
Shanghai (3394.66, +0.19%) is open to test levels near 3410-3420 in the coming sessions. Near term looks bullish while the price trades above the 21-day MA clearly visible on the daily line charts.
Nifty (10207.70, +0.22%) has decent scope of testing 10400 on the upside in the near term. There is a possibility of the index opening with a gap up today trying to attempt higher levels of 10300-10320.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1274.06) seems to have broken below the immediate support on the daily candles and could test 1260-1250 levels while below 1280. Thereafter, a bounce back towards 1300 is likely.
Silver (16.88) could tets support near 16.60 before rising back towards 17 and higher.
Brent (58.38) has not been able to move above 58.60 in the past few sessions and could possibly come off today towards 57.50 or lower again. But on the longer term, we could see a rise towards 59.50-60.00. Near to medium term looks sideways to bullish.
WTI (52.43) would have to rise above 53 to turn bullish towards 54-55 levels in the medium term. But at the same time,there is resistance visible on the weekly candles that could possibly give some rejection near current levels or let the price rise towards 53-54 levels in the next couple of weeks.
Resistance on the 3-day candles on Copper (3.1950) is important and could keep the price range-bound for a few sessions before it starts to come off towards 3.10 and lower. Near term could be ranged sideways with longer term bearishness on the cards.
FOREX
Euro (1.1760) rose to a high of 1.1793 in the US session yesterday. The strength of the 1.1730-00 Support could be increasing a bit.
Dollar-Yen (113.90) rose again yesterday, negating the fall from 114.07 seen on Monday. This is a surprise and might signal a test of the long-term Resistance at 114.50. The Euro-Yen (133.88) has risen well alongwith the rise in Dollar-Yen and may be able to rise towards 135+ in coming days.
The Pound (1.3130) has proved our bearishness right after all, as the cited Resistance at 1.3250 has held well. Further sales from here could target 1.30 in the next few days from where a short-term bounce could be seen.
Contrary to expectation of Support at 0.7785, the Aussie (0.7727) has actually broken lower with some force, surprising us. However, some more Support may be available near 0.7700. Need to see if that holds/ breaks over today-tomorrow.
Dollar-Yuan (6.6419) trades further higher today and may well surpass the psychological 6.65%. Dollar-Rupee rose to 65.07 yesterday. Unsure of its possible movement today.
INTEREST RATES
Both the US 10Yr (2.42%) and German 10Yr (0.47%) have risen almost equally. The German-US 10yr Spread (-1.95%) has come down marginally.
Need to see if there is a good bounce from here or not. As mentioned yesterday, there is Support at 0.40% on the German 10Yr and Resistance in the 2.40-50% region on the US 10Yr.
In India, we need to see how the bond market reacts to the Bank Recapitalisation Plan announced yesterday. The 10yr GOI had come down a bit to 6.7820% yesterday.
