- EURUSD stages another bull run within bearish channel
- Bulls need to push above 200-EMA to gain control
EURUSD has been moving in an upward path since pausing its downtrend at a ten-month low of 1.0447 and at the lower boundary of the two-month-old bearish channel.
In the four-hour chart, the pair is looking for a clear close above its 50-period exponential moving average (EMA), which the bulls have been struggling to successfully surpass over the past months.
The RSI keeps making new higher highs above its 50 neutral mark, flagging further progress ahead. Encouragingly, the MACD is finally ascending within the positive region, embracing the positive mood in the market. Yet, with the stochastic oscillator already fluctuating above its 80 overbought level, positive dynamics could be short-lived.
Resistance could initially develop around October’s high of 1.0590. A decisive step higher could clear the way up to the channel’s upper bound at 1.0650. Note that the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.1274-1.0447 downtrend is in the neighborhood, while the 200-day EMA is also marginally higher at 1.0676. Hence, another victory there could be the key for an advance towards the 1.0735 barrier or higher to the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.0763.
On the downside, selling forces are expected to intensify below the nearby 1.0540-1.0525 region. In this case, the price could plummet towards the 1.0447 low if the 1.0480 area proves fragile. Should the outlook worsen below the channel at 1.0420, the pair could aggressively plunge to 1.0316, last seen in November 2023.
In brief, EURUSD could recoup some lost ground in the short-term, though only a rally above the bearish channel and the 200-period EMA at 1.0676 would signal an upside trend reversal.
