The decision on the base interest rate will be published tomorrow at 21:00 GMT+3, and Powell will hold a press conference at 21:30. Although most experts, as reported by the media, expect that the current rate will remain, market participants will closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the current situation, which includes new data on inflation and the labour market. It is possible that there will be another rate increase before the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 chart shows the market under pressure in mid-September, although the overall picture appears balanced.
The balance of supply and demand is indicated by the fact that the movement B→C is approximately 50% of the movement A→B. And the C→D movement is approximately 50% of the B→C movement. That is, fluctuations die out as buyers and sellers converge.
The price is still within the ascending channel (shown in blue), but it is possible that during tomorrow’s news announcement from the Federal Reserve there will be an attempt by the bears to break through it.
Bearish arguments:
→ On August 31 – September 1, on the CME exchange, where E-mini futures for the S&P 500 index are traded, volumes below average were recorded, after which the price decreased with an increase in volumes on September 6 — this can be interpreted as if above 4,560 the market is experiencing a shortage of demand. And the revival of the market with a decrease in price is a sign of bearish sentiment.
→ Level 4,560 was tested last week, on Thursday. After which there was a sharp decline with an increase in volume on Friday. Similar dynamics indicating that the market is under bearish pressure ahead of the meeting.
If the pressure leads to a new downward impulse, the 4,440 level could become resistance for the bulls’ attempts to return the price to the ascending channel.
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