The US 100 index is moving sideways today, trading a tad below 15,258 that has morphed into a significant resistance level. The bulls failed to clear this level on their first attempt on June 16, 2023, and are now preparing the stage for another retest. The bears continue to exhibit an inability to record a decent pullback despite the fact that the aggressive upleg, since the March 13, 2023 low, lacks a significant correction.
The momentum indicators appear mixed at this stage. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) has quickly dropped lower, just above its 25-threshold and signalling a mild bullish trend. In the meantime, the stochastic oscillator has returned inside its overbought territory, allowing the bulls to consider recording a new 2023 high.
If the bulls remain committed to making higher highs, they could try to finally push the US 100 index above the 15,258-15,411 range set by the March 30, 2022 high and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the November 22, 2021 – October 13, 2022 downtrend. Even higher, the September 6, 2021 high of 15,708 might not trouble the bulls much, but it will open the door for the all-time high of 16,767.
On the other hand, the bears are desperately trying to engineer some type of consolidation. Should they manage to successfully defend the 15,258-15,411 range, they could try to push the index toward the 14,346-14,382 area. Such a correction would be the first significant short-term win for the bears since March 2023, and could help them build momentum into tackling the busier 14,075-14,172 range.
To sum up, the US 100 index bulls have taken a breather and are now preparing for another upleg. A potential second failure in clearing the key 15,258-15,411 area would gradually turn momentum in favour of the bears.
