Cable fell back below 1.3200 after recovery attempts from Wednesday’s downside rejection at 1.3140 (55SMA) stalled at 1.3228 on Thursday.
Fresh weakness diminishes hopes of stronger recovery after Wednesday’s action was shaped in Hammer.
Mixed techs on daily chart show no clear near-term direction, with rising downside risk on recovery stall under top of hourly cloud (1.3232). Thick hourly cloud (spanned between 1.3203/32) so far limited recovery attempts, with sustained break above cloud needed to generate bullish signal.
UK Retail Sales data are in focus today, with forecast for September at -0.1% m/m vs 1.0% in Aug and 2.4% y/y vs 2.8% in Aug, seen as negative signal for Sterling if release comes at/below forecasts.
Bearish scenario could trigger acceleration through 55SMA pivot at 1.3140, towards 1.3100 and possible extension lower on stronger bearish acceleration.
Conversely, upbeat Retail Sales numbers in September would inflate pound and expose barriers at 1.3274 (falling 20SMA) and 1.3313 (30SMA).
Res: 1.3232, 1.3264, 1.3286, 1.3313
Sup: 1.3181, 1.3154, 1.3140, 1.3100
