The US 30 cash index is edging lower today after failing again to close above the December 2, 2022 downward trendline and the 34,280 level. The bears appear determined to defend this area, hoping that they can take advantage of any exhaustion signs appearing on the bulls’ side.
With the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) hovering around its 25-threshold and signaling a range-trading market, the bears are betting on the stochastic oscillator for the much-awaited bearish signal. Indeed, this indicator is trading in its overbought (OB) area and it has just crossed below its moving average. However, a decisive move below its OB territory is needed to support the bears’ intentions.
Should the bulls decide to retest the August 16, 2022 high at 34,280, they would firstly have to break the December 2, 2022 downward trendline. The December 13, 2022 high at 34,930 would be the next aim, a tad below the busier 35,091-35,496 range populated by the April 21, 2022 and May 10, 2021 highs respectively.
On the other hand, the bears would be keen on a break of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January 5, 2022 – October 3, 2022 downtrend at 33,754 before targeting the, arguably more important, 33,342-33,548 area. The combination of the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs), and the October 1, 2021 low means that the bears’ determination would be put to the test there.
To sum up, the US 30 bulls are taking a breather after failing again to break the 34,280 level. Time does not appear to be on their side and a potential correction could be more forceful than they currently anticipate.
