AUDUSD maintains a soft undertone and the neutral to bearish technical indicators are supporting the bearish view for the short term.
The downward move from the 0.8124 peak is still in progress after the recent bounce off 0.7732 reversed back down as prices found resistance at the 50-day moving average.
AUDUSD may be forming a lower top at 0.7897 to continue the downtrend. This would be confirmed if prices break below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the uptrend from 0.7328 to 0.8124. This level is acting as support at 0.7725. From here the market remains at risk of additional losses towards the 0.7500 area before re-testing the 0.7328 low.
Should prices break above the 50-day MA (0.7909), AUDUSD would shift the focus back to the upside to target the key 0.8000 level and then the 0.8124 peak, with scope to resume the uptrend that started from 0.7328.
Looking at the bigger picture, the underlying market structure is still bullish as the pullback from 0.8124 is not that deep yet. Prices are currently only at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
