STOCKS
Dow (22871.72, +0.13%) is headed towards our expected 23000-23250 levels in the near term. View remains bullish for the coming sessions.
Dax (12991.87, +0.07%) has made an intra-week high at exact resistance levels at 13036 last week and in case the index manages to rise above 13036, could indicate further rise towards 13500 in the coming sessions.
Nikkei (21288.12, +0.63%) is trading at multi-year highs, levels last seen in 1996. The current upmove can take the index towards 21500-21600 at least in the coming sessions. Nikkei looks overbought at the current levels and could be a signal of some turn-around for the near to medium term. Need to be cautious and keep an eye on the Dollar Yen (112.005) which needs to rise above 112.0-112.5 to boost further up-move in the Nikkei. Else we would have to be ready to see pause in Nikkei any time soon.
Shanghai (3398.62, +0.24%) is steadily moving up towards 3400-3420 levels and looks positive for the near term.
Nifty (10167.45, +0.70%) has started celebrating Diwali since Friday, making all time highs near 10190. Note crucial resistance is visible at 10200 and that could push the index down towards 10100 again in the coming sessions. In case the index manages to break above 10200, there could be a straight 100points rally towards 10300-10320 levels in the near term.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1302.04) could face some rejection just above current levels and could possibly come off towards 1290/80 again in the near term. Else a break above 1308 could take it higher to test 1320 before coming off to 1300 or lower.
Silver (17.34) is headed towards 17.50 soon from where slight rejection is possible.
Brent (57.84) has scope of testing 59.50-60.00 in the near term while above 57.40. WTI (51.89) is trading higher and could move up towards 52.00-52.30 in the coming sessions.
Copper (3.1305) is bullish towards 3.15-3.18 as mentioned last week, before some pause is seen.
FOREX
Surprisingly for us, the Euro (1.1808) lost ground in US trade on Friday after an initial rise to 1.1875 after the release of US CPI (+2.23%) and US Retail Sales (+4.69% y/y). It is testing the lower Support of 1.1800 mentioned on Friday. It has to do some hard work now to earn its still preferred rise towards 1.20.
At the same time, Dollar-Yen (112.00) has recovered a bit after dipping to 111.50, the lower Support mentioned on Friday. It may now try to rise towards 113.00 over the coming days.
The Euro-Yen (132.23) has tested and held above Support at 131.70 (not mentioned on Friday) and may be able to rise towards 133.25 at least, as it is still in an overall uptrend.
The Pound (1.3288) was stable/ mixed. It rose to 1.3325 on Friday and might want to test 1.3400-50 in a few days. We are seeing long-term Resistance in the 1.34-35 region.
Good rise in the Aussie (0.7878) from a low of 0.7733 over the last week aided by a strong Copper. Suggests chances of some more upside to 0.7930 or higher.
The Chinese Yuan (6.5769) trades relatively strong. Dollar-Rupee is tesing Support at 64.70/75 on the NDF compared to 64.93 on Friday.
INTEREST RATES
Contrary to expectation, the German-US 10Yr Spread (-1.89%) and the German-US 2Yr Spread (-2.25%) trade a wee bit lower than Friday, contributing to the Euro weakness. That said, the Support at -1.93% on the German-US 10Yr Spread mentioned on Friday could hold.
US Yields (2Yr 1.51%, 5Yr 1.91%, 10Yr 2.28% and 30Yr 2.82%) have been coming down all of last week, but stabilised a bit on Friday. Need to see if they will dip some more towards 1.81% (5yr), 2.21% (10Yr) and 2.72% (30Yr).
In contrast, the German Yields (10Yr 0.41%) could be trading near Supports and could move up a bit ahead of the ECB meeting next week, even though Draghi has said rates will remain low for a long time.
The Indo-US 10Yr Spread (4.45%) may have Resistance near current levels.
