The US 500 cash index has surged more than 3.5% over the last three days, overcoming the 4,100 level. However, the technical oscillators appear overbought. The RSI is pointing down in the positive territory, while the stochastic is turning lower above the 80 level, suggesting that the bullish move in the market may come to an end soon. Also, the index is still standing above the simple moving averages (SMAs) and the medium-term uptrend lines.
Should the index manage to strengthen its positive momentum, the next resistance could come around 4,200, which is a six-month peak. A break above it would shift the bias to a more bullish one and open the way towards the 4,325 barrier.
However, if prices are unable to remain above 4,080, the risk would shift back to the downside, with the 50- the 100, and the 200-day SMAs at 4,027, 3,980 and 3,940 respectively, once again coming into focus, as well as the ascending trend lines around 3,900.
To conclude, the outlook remains positive since prices hold above all the moving average lines and the recent upside rally stays in place.
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