STOCKS
Dow (22872.89, +0.18%) is trading just on the resistance on the 3-day candles but at the same time has broken resistance on the weekly candles indicating a further rise towards 23250 on the cards. While above 22850, 23000-23250 levels could be tested soon. .
Dax (12970.68, +0.17%) is trapped in the 13000-12900 region and could trade sideways for some time. While trading below 13000-13035 levels it is likely that the index would come off towards 12850 in the near term. A break above 13035 would be surprising and could indicate fresh bulls coming into the picture.
Nikkei (20978.56, +0.47%) has been rallying up and has almost reached our target resistance of 21000. This would be crucial to watch. A sustained break above 21000, if seen could indicate strong bullish momentum and could take the index towards 22000 and higher while a rejection from 21000, could initiate fresh bears for the longer term.
Shanghai (3383.44, -0.14%) is almost stable and could trade within 3400-3375 region in the near term.
Nifty (9984.80, -0.32%) came off sharply yesterday to levels below 10000. In case the index fails to bounce back again above 10000 in the near term., the corrective dip could continue towards 9900.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1293.6) and Silver (17.17) are almost stable. Gold could test 1300 in the next few sessions while Silver could see a corrective dip towards 17.00-16.80 or at least remain stable near current levels.
Brent (56.61) and WTI (51.02) are almost stable as seen yesterday. As mentioned yesterday, Brent has scope of rising towards 57.45 and WTI could rise to 51.50-52.00 before seeing another down leg.
Copper (3.0895) has moved up sharply as expected. Either the price may pause near 3.10 or if it moves higher, we could see a re-test of levels near 3.18-3.20 in the near term.
FOREX
Keep a close watch on the German-US 10YR spread (See Interest Rates Section below) which had indicated a rise in Euro in the last couple of sessions. Euro (1.1873) could further strengthen towards 1.1950 while the yield spread remains higher.
Dollar Index (92.84) is headed towards 92.50 again and looks bearish for the near term.
The down move has come in faster than our expectation and a break below 92.50 could turn bearish towards 92 in the medium term.
Dollar Yen (112.374) is unable to give any directional clarity just now. While the price tries to break below 112.00, it could eventually head towards 111.50; else a rise back towards 113.00-113.25 is possible.
Dollar Rupee (65.15) could possibly move up towards 65.20/25 again while trying to attempt a test of 65.10-65.00 on the downside.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields look slightly positive today. The US 10-5YR (0.39%) has fallen sharply and could test support near 0.3750 before again bouncing back to higher levels. This could indicate that the 10YR could possibly fall compared to the 5Yr in the coming sessions or the 5Yr (1.96%) could rise fast keeping the 10Yr yield (2.35%) stable.
The German-US 10YR (-1.88%) has bounced as expected pulling up Euro also with itself. The spread looks positive for the near term and could indicate a further rise in Euro in the coming sessions.
