STOCKS
Dow (22830.68, +0.31%) could face rejection from resistance zone of 22800-22850 levels and could possibly see a corrective dip in the next few sessions. Only on a break above 22850, we would look at higher levels of 23000.
Dax (12949.25, -0.21%) is trading below important resistance near 13000-13035 levels and while that holds, the index could either trade sideways below 13000 or come off sharply towards 12900-12850 in the near term. Directional view remains bearish for the coming sessions.
Nikkei (20878.13, +0.26%) is up sharply and is ready to test crucial long term resistance near 21000 in the coming sessions. A sharp correction from 21000 is the preferred scenario.
Shanghai (3387.31, +0.13%) has bounced well from 3360, also the 21-day MA, contrary to our expectation of a test of 3325. While above 3360, the price could rise towards 3400-3425 levels in the near term.
10000 is a good near term support for the Nifty (10016.95, +0.28%) and while the index trades above this support, there could be chances of seeing an up move towards 10100 soon. Only on a fall below 10000, we would negate the chances of an immediate upside.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1287.70) has dipped slightly. A test of 1280 is possible in the coming sessions before again rising back towards 1290-1295. Gold is likely to remain trapped in the 1280-1300 region for at least the next 4-5 sessions.
Silver (17.11) has immediate resistance near 17.25 and while that holds, price could come off slightly towards 17.00-16.80 in the near term.
Brent (56.67) and WTI (51.05) have both bounced from support levels as expected and are trading higher today. While above 56.65, Brent has scope of rising towards 57.45 and WTI could rise to 52 before seeing another down leg. Near term looks bullish.
Copper (3.0545) rose back again above 3.05 maybe due to a rise in the Chinese stocks. While the price sustains above 3.05, we could see a test if 3.10 or even higher in the near term.
FOREX
Dollar Index (93.33) is trading lower as expected but could be trapped in the 93-94 levels for the next 2-sessions. Euro (1.1803) also moved up to test 1.1825 as expected but could see a small dip to 1.1750 again in the near term. Trade within 1.1730-1.1850 is possible in the coming sessions.
Dollar Yen (112.465) is stuck and trades narrow in the 113.25-112.00 region. As mentioned yesterday, the sideways consolidation may continue for some more time. Thereafter a fall below 112 seems more likely.
Pound (1.3194) could test 1.3250-1.3300 on the upside while above 1.3100.
Aussie (0.7780) has some chances of testing 0.77 on the downside but at the same time prices are attempting a rise towards 0.7850 too. Overall near term trade within 0.7850-0.77 is possible.
Dollar Rupee (65.29) closed at slightly lower levels yesterday after making an intra day low of 65.19. Our initial target of 65.00 remain on the cards for the near term.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields are trading low as expected. The 5Yr (1.95%), 10Yr (2.35%) and the 30Yr (2.89%) could be stable or move down to 1.90%, 2.30% and 2.80% respectively in the near term. The 30YR seems to be stable compared to the 10YR and the 5Yr which are vulnerable to a further fall in the next few sessions.
The US-Japan 10YR (2.28%) is headed downwards and could test 2.20% on the downside which could possibly pull down Dollar Yen to lower levels in the near term or at least keep the currency pair stable.
The German-US 2YR (-2.21%) and the German-US 10YR (-1.90%) seem to have bounced from support levels and look bullish in the near term. This could be a boost for Euro and indicative of Euro strength in the medium term.
