The Euro is holding within tight range in early Monday and showing no clear near-term direction but elevated above last Friday’s post US data low at 1.1669.
Pivotal point at 1.1720 (Fibo 38.2% retracement of 1.1118/1.2092 rally) which was dented on several attempts lower is still acting as support. hourly studies are bullishly aligned and along with falling wedge on 4-hr chart, suggesting stronger recovery after Friday’s strong downside rejection at 1.1669.
Scenario needs sustained break above 1.1750/55 pivots (falling daily Tenkan-sen / 10SMA / Fibo 23.6% of 1.2033/1.1669 / upper boundary of falling wedge) to generate initial reversal signal and expose upper pivots at 1.1808/32 (Fibo 38.2% / 29 Sep lower top.
On the other side, daily techs remain firmly bearish and near-term action being so far capped by falling 10SMA / Tenkan-sen which keeps the downside vulnerable for renewed attack at 1.1662 target (17 Aug trough).
Firm break here is needed to signal bearish continuation and open key supports at 1.1604/00 (daily cloud base / rising 100SMA).
Res: 1.1755, 1.1778, 1.1808, 1.1832
Sup: 1.1720, 1.1696, 1.1662, 1.1604
