EURCHF has been trading in a consolidative manner lately, staying slightly above the 0.9820 zone, which is near the 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMA). That said, it also remains below the 0.9950 hurdle, which provided resistance between October27 and November 9, and also lies slightly below the 200-day EMA. Despite the pair staging a decent recovery after hitting a record low of 0.9400 on September 26, a break above parity may be needed to reinforce the bullish case.
Both the daily oscillators are detecting positive momentum, but they are flattening, confirming the fading speed of the latest recovery. That’s another development adding credence to the narrative that a break above 1.0000 may be needed to brighten the outlook.
A clear and decisive break above parity could pave the way towards the 1.0155 territory, marked by the high of June 27, or the 1.0225 zone, which provided strong support between May 19 and June 2. If neither zone is able to stop the bulls, then the advance may continue towards the 1.0340 barrier, marked by the inside swing low of June 14.
On the downside, a break below 0.9705 may be the move signaling that the bears have gained the upper hand again. It would confirm a lower low on the daily chart and may see scope for declines towards the low of August 24, at 0.9550. Should that barrier fail to attract the bulls, the slide may extend towards the record low of 0.9400.
To sum up, EURCHF has staged a relatively decent comeback since September 26, when it hit an all-time low at 0.9400. However, for the recovery to continue, a break above parity may be needed.
