STOCKS
Dow (22775.39, +0.50%) has broken above all immediate resistances and looks strongly under the control of the bulls now. While the upward momentum stays intact, we could see a rise towards 23000-23250 levels soon.
Dax (12968.05, -0.02%) is almost stable today but is poised for another upside shot targeting the crucial resistance near 13000-13050 levels from where a sharp corrective dip is likely. The index could close the week on a positive note. By the end of next week, we could possibly get to see some initial signs of correction while below 13050.
Nikkei (20679.18, +0.25%) is trading just below important resistance zone of 20700-20745 and while that holds, scope of further upside looks limited. The index could remain stable and possibly enter into a sideways consolidation if not see a sharp fall towards 20600-20500 levels in the near term.
Resistance near 9970-9950 continues to hold for now. Nifty (9888.70, -0.26%) could trade within 9950-9850 for a few sessions before coming down towards 9800.
Shanghai is closed this week. Fresh movement expected on Monday after the weeklong holiday.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1268.45) is stuck within the 1285-1260 region and could trade sideways for some sessions. Silver (16.61) is also sideways but could possibly come off towards 16.50-16.25 levels in the near term.
Gold-Silver ratio (76.298) could test support near 75.80 and while that holds, we could see a bounce back to 77 in the next 2-3 sessions.
Brent (56.91) has bounced from above support levels of 54.80-55.00 as seen on the 3-day candles. While the immediate support holds, the price could move up to levels near 57-58 soon.
WTI (50.73) seems to have enough room on the downside just now and has potential to move down towards 49.00-48.50 before attempting to rise again in the longer run.
Copper (3.0475) rose sharply and is trading above 3.00 just now. While above 3, the price could start moving up again towards 3.10 in the near term. View is bullish for the coming sessions.
FOREX
We may be wrong, but it appears that with Dollar Index at 93.94 and Euro at 1.1710, the market is going in Long Dollars into the US NFP tonight. Caution is advised as we see Resistance at 94.50 on the Dollar Index and Support in the 1.1665-00 region on the Euro.
Note that the German-US 2Yr Spread (-2.19%) may have Support at -2.23% while the German-US 10Yr Spread (-1.90%) may have Support near -1.94%, limiting the downside in the Euro.
Dollar-Yen (112.85) has been consolidating below 113.00-50 for the last few days but might attempt to rise to 113.50-114.00 in the short term as the US-Japan 10Yr Spread continues to rise.
Not covering the Pound, Aussie today. Apologies.
Dollar-Rupee (65.14) might move up to 65.25-30 today.
INTEREST RATES
There may be some more room on the upside for US yields, but limited to 3.00% on the 30Yr (2.89%), 2.50% on the 10Yr (2.35%) and 2.20% on the 5Yr (1.95%). If all these levels are tested, the US Yield Curve will flatten.
Market expectation is a low 88K from the US NFP tonight. A higher number can well be a trigger for a rise in US yields.
See Forex section above for views on German-US and US-Japan yield spreads.
10Yr GOI (6.7286%) is breaking above 6.70%, the level that we expected to hold as resistance earlier. Needs to be watched carefully.
