The Aussie dollar fell in Asia on Thursday, following weaker than expected data. Australian retail sales fell 0.6% in August, undershooting forecast for 0.3% raise and posting biggest fall since March 2013.
Better than expected Australian Trade Balance data (trade surplus widened to A$0.98B, well above forecasted A$0.87B and surplus of A$ 0.80 in July) did not have stronger impact in offsetting negative signal from downbeat retail sales.
The AUDUSD pair remains in red at the beginning of European session, with near-term focus turning lower after recovery rally from Tuesday’s low at 0.7785 stalled at 0.7874 on Wednesday, capped by falling 10SMA.
Fresh near-term bears have so far retraced 61.8% of 0.7785/0.7874 recovery and look for retest of daily cloud base (0.7800) which marks key near-term support, reinforced by rising 100SMA (0.7780). Break here would generate fresh bearish signal for resumption of the downtrend from 0.8124 (08 Sep peak) towards targets at 0.7726 (weekly Kijun-sen).
Bears are expected to stay in play while falling 10SMA caps and only sustained break here would ease persisting downside pressure.
US jobs data on Friday are eyed for fresh signals.
Res: 0.7840, 0.7874, 0.7930, 0.7933
Sup: 0.7800, 0.7785, 0.7745, 0.7726
