STOCKS
Dow (22641.67, +0.37%) has been moving up in the last few sessions brushing aside all political and economical factors. New highs this week could enable extension of the current rally towards 22750 or even higher towards 23000 in the near term. Bullishness for the coming sessions remains intact. Rejection from 22750 mentioned yesterday may be negated if the upward momentum remains strong.
Does weakness in Euro support Dax? Well that’s how the current scenario is. The fall of euro from levels near 1.2090 and the rise in Dax from 11868 has been in tandem as negative correlation between the two seems to be in play. Dax (12902.65, +0.58%) is not far from the 13000 high seen in June’17 and if a rejection fails from 13000, we could possibly see fresh highs in the coming weeks. Near to medium term looks bullish in case 13000 fails to hold on the upside.
Shanghai (3348.94, +0.28%) has been stable for quite a few sessions now and is possibly in a sideways consolidation acting as a base building for a sharp upmove soon. While above 3330, Shanghai could be poised for a rise towards 3375-3400 in the medium term. Downside could be limited to 3325 for now.
Nikkei (20659.12, +0.22%) could test immediate resistance just above current levels and if that holds, we could see some correction from here; else a test of the major resistance near 21000 is on the cards in the coming sessions.
Nifty (9859.50, +0.72%) has some chances of testing 9900-9950 levels in the coming sessions before again coming off towards 9800 or lower in the medium term.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1275.43) has inched up slightly from levels near 1268. A sustained break above 1280 is necessary to take it back towards 1290 or even higher in the near term. Till then the fears of a fall below 1268 will remain on the cards. Note that 1265 is a decent support for the near term and is likely to hold.
Silver (16.73) could move up towards 17 while above 16.50.
Brent (55.63) is in a downtrend and could come off towards 55.00-54.80 in the coming sessions. Near term looks weak just now.
WTI (50.03) is also looking bearish just now and could come off towards 49.50-49.00 in the coming sessions.
Copper (2.9665) is stuck in the 2.90-3.00 region and is possibly towards the end of the sideways consolidation. We could see a rise past 3.00 in the near term. View remains bullish.
FOREX
A bit of slowdown in the Collar’s upmove, with the Dollar Index (93.40) down a bit compared to 93.87 yesterday, and the Euro (1.1775) up from yesterday’s 1.1707.
While some more Dollar strength is possible in the coming days, note Resistance at 94.50 (21-week MA) on the Dollar Index and Support at 1.16 (21-week MA) on the Euro, which are likely to hold.
Dollar-Yen (112.65) was unable to rise past 113.20 and thus stayed short of our target of 113.50-60. It has been finding sellers above 113.00 consistently over the last 4-5 days, so we need to watch now whether 113.50-60 will be tested at all or not. The chances of it (113.50-60) holding increase.
The Euro-Yen (132.59) looks bullish on the 3-Day Candles, with good trend Support at 132.00-131.50 now.
Relative weakness persists in the Pound (1.3265) while below 1.33-34. Medium-term target 1.30, with immediate Supports at 1.3200-3150.
Decent uptick in the Aussie (0.7860) suggesting that 0.7781, near the 21-week MA, could be providing a decent Support. A test of 0.79 is possible in the near term.
Dollar-Yuan (6.6532) is stable near yesterday’s level, with chances of being ranged sideways between 6.62-70 for some days.
Perhaps the dip in the Dollar Index will help Dollar-Rupee to dip towards 65.40-35 today.
INTEREST RATES
The US yields have paused after the recent rise in the last couple of weeks. The yields may now see some sessions of weakness. The 10YR (2.33%) could come off towards 2.30% or a little lower in the near term while the 30YR (2.87%) may test 2.80% before again rising up sharply.
Sharp break above immediate resistances for the US-Japan 10Yr (2.27%). This could be indicative of a sharp upmove in the near term towards 2.35% or even higher. Note that while the differential surges higher, it could pull up both Dollar Yen and Nikkei to higher levels. Also to keep in mind the crucial resistance coming up near 21000 on Nikkei.
The German-US 10Yr (-1.87%) looks strongly bearish for the coming sessions and could be vulnerable to a fall towards -1.90% or lower in the near term. In that case, Euro could see some weakness going forward.
