USDJPY has trimmed its bullish momentum since the spike above the 1998 top of 147.71, gradually moving northwards within the 149.00 area – the highest since 1990.
The pair is in its tenth week of gains well above the Ichimoku cloud, increasing speculation that the bull run is probably nearing a peak. The RSI is flirting with its previous high in the overbought area, while the stochastics are also comfortably above their 80 overbought level, backing that narrative too.
If the 150.00 psychological mark proves easy to break, the pair could chart a new higher high within the 151.00 – 152.00 territory last seen in August 1990. Should the bulls persist, the next obstacle could pop up around 153.30.
In the event upside pressures falter, with the price pulling below 148.00, the focus will immediately return to the tentative ascending trendline currently around 147.00. A step lower could meet the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and a longer-term tentative ascending trendline near 145.90. Yet, traders may pay greater attention to the 145.00 region for any aggressive declines that may press the price towards the 50-day SMA.
All in all, USDJPY is looking cautiously bullish in the short-term picture as the technical picture signals overbought conditions. A close above 150.00 could see another extension higher, whilst a move below 148.00 could activate profit-taking orders.
