The commodities market starts the new week in October with attempts to stabilise. The Brent barrel had previously “sagged”, but is now returning to USD 92.40. It turns out that the entire positive effect of the OPEC+ decision to reduce black gold production quotas for November has now been exhausted.
This week, however, the focus of the commodities market will be on economic data from China. The main thing investors will be interested in is GDP figures for Q3, where a 3.5% y/y increase is expected, as well as figures for industrial production and retail sales. Forecasts look very weak due to the ongoing coronavirus restrictions.
Fresh data from Baker Hughes reflected an increase of 8 rigs in the US for the week up to 610. Oil production in the country stands at 12 million bpd, IEA expects to rise to 12.3 million bpd by end-December.
On the H4 Brent chart, an upside wave to 95.40 and a correction to 91.50 have been worked out. Today the market has started to form another upside wave to the level of 95.66. We expect its break up and continuation of the trend towards 99.55. The target is local. After it is reached, we will consider the probability of correction to the level of 95.66. Further – growth to 105,50. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD oscillator. Its signal line is above the zero mark and it is ready to continue growth to new highs.
On the H1 Brent chart, the corrective wave channel has been broken upwards and quotations are trading in a rising structure towards the 95.66 level. The target in the next growth wave is the first one. After it is broken down, a correction link to 93.85 is not ruled out. Further – growth to the level of 97.00 with the prospect of trend continuation to 99.55. The target is local. Technically, this scenario is also confirmed by theStochastic oscillator. Its signal line is above the 50 mark. We expect the continuation of growth towards 80.
