USDJPY traded higher today, after hitting support at 141.45. However, the recovery remained limited slightly above the 143.30 level, marked by the inside swing low of September 8. Despite the pair being in a corrective phase since September 7, when it hit 145.00, it is still trading above all the plotted moving averages and the uptrend line drawn from the low of August 11, which keeps the bigger picture positive.
The RSI and the MACD support the notion for some further retreat before the next leg north. The former turned down and just dipped its toe below the equilibrium 50 line, while the MACD, although slightly positive, lies below its trigger line.
The retreat may continue for a while more and the bulls may take charge from near the 141.45 area or the uptrend line. If so, a potential rebound could allow another test near the 144.50 or 145.00 zones, marked by the highs of September 8 and 7 respectively. A break higher would confirm a new 24-year high and may carry larger bullish implications, perhaps paving the way towards the peak of August 1998 at 147.70.
Flipping the coin, the picture could start darkening upon a dip below the round figure of 140.00, hit as a resistance on September 2. Such a dip may confirm the break below the upside line and initially aim for the 139.00 zone, marked by the inside swing highs of August 29 and 30. If that zone doesn’t hold either, its break may set the stage for extensions towards the inside swing highs of August 22 and 23, at around 137.65.
All in all, USDJPY has been in a corrective phase since September 7, but the price structure still points to a bigger uptrend. On that account, the chances of the bulls taking the reins again and aiming for a new 24-year high may be more than decent.
