USDCHF was flirting with the 0.9800 level during the early European trading hours, the highest since mid-July as trading for September began ahead of Friday’s US nonfarm payroll report.
The pair is set for its third consecutive week of gains, but the downtrend in the medium-term picture is still valid, defended by the clear series of lower highs and lower lows off the three-year high of 1.0063 registered in May. Despite that, the momentum indicators are optimistic that the bulls may still have some fuel in the tank. Specifically, the RSI has yet to touch its 70 overbought mark, while the stochastics look to re-enter the overbought area above 80. The strength in the MACD is backing this view as well.
On the upside, the 0.9800 – 0.9840 zone, which encapsulates the 61.8% Fibonacci of the latest downleg, could be the key for an acceleration towards the 0.9935 handle. Beyond that, buyers will aim for parity, bringing the top of 1.0063 back under scope.
In the bearish scenario, where the rally halts around 0.9800, the 50% Fibonacci of 0.9716 could buffer any selling pressures. If it fails to do so, the decline may stretch towards the 38.2% Fibonacci of 0.9634, while lower, some consolidation may emerge near the swing low of 0.9576 before the 23.6% Fibonacci of 0.9533 appears on the radar.
Summarizing, USDCHF seems to have some room for improvement in the short-term picture, though whether the pair will manage to reverse its medium-term downtrend above July’s peak of 0.9884 remains to be seen.
