CHFJPY started drifting lower on Monday, after it hit resistance once again at 143.20, a zone which has been preventing the bulls from climbing higher since June 30, a day after the pair hit its record high at 143.74. This, combined with the fact that the pair has been mostly trading above 138.65 since June 17, suggests a sideways range, and thereby paints a neutral picture.
The daily oscillators indicate a lack of, or little, directional momentum, which adds credence to the narrative of a neutral outlook. The RSI has turned down and appears ready to touch its equilibrium 50 line, while the MACD, although slightly positive, crossed below its trigger line and is pointing south as well.
For the prevailing longer-term uptrend to continue, a break above the record peak of 143.74 may be needed. This will take CHFJPY into uncharted territory, and with no prior highs or inside swing lows to mark potential new resistance zones, such a role may be played by the psychological number of 145.00 and the 146.00 area.
On the downside, a break below 138.65 may confirm the completion of a ‘triple top’ formation, and thereby signal a trend reversal. Initially, the bears could aim for the 137.10 level, marked by the low of August 2, the break of which could set the stage for larger declines, perhaps towards the 134.00/35 zone, defined by the lows of June 15 and 16 respectively.
To recap, CHFJPY bulls have repeatedly failed to overcome the pair’s record of 143.74, finding strong resistance at 143.20. That ceiling and the key support of 138.65 are forming a sideways range that’s been containing most of the price action since June 17.
