The internal structure of the USDCNH pair hints at the primary zigzag pattern Ⓐ-Ⓑ-Ⓒ, which in the long term forms a cycle correction IV. The correction model today looks completed in two parts out of three.
The last primary wave Ⓒ takes the form of an intermediate 5-wave impulse (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5).
The current structure may indicate that the market has completed the construction of a bullish intermediate impulse (3), and at the moment an intermediate correction (4) is forming in the market, taking the form of a minor double zigzag W-X-Y near 6.543. At that level, intermediate correction will be at 61.8% of impulse (3).
After the end of the correction (4), the market growth may resume within the final sub-wave (5) above the level of 6.839 marked by impulse (3).
An alternative scenario shows that the construction of the entire cycle correction IV could already be completed. It took the form not of a simple zigzag, but of a double zigzag consisting of primary sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ.
Thus, if this assumption is correct, the market may begin to move in a downward direction, forming the final cycle wave V.
Most likely, wave V will complete its development in the area of the previous minimum of 6.302, marked by impulse III. Moreover, at that level, wave V will be at 61.8% of impulse III. Therefore, the probability of achieving this coefficient is high.
