NZDJPY experienced a very sharp drop in recent sessions, sliding below its 50-day moving average to find support near its lower Bollinger band. The uptrend that started in late January seems to be unravelling as the pair has printed lower lows and lower highs, particularly on shorter timeframes.
Short-term oscillators paint a picture of a slightly bearish market. The RSI has stabilized a little, albeit below its neutral 50 line, while the MACD is stuck below its red trigger line.
In the case that sellers remain in charge and manage to pierce back below the 82.30 area, which was also a top back in October, the next region to provide support may be around 81.60. This zone also roughly coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-April rally.
If buyers seize back control, their first test would be the 83.30 territory and the 50-day moving average just above at 83.50. If that resistance barrier is breached, the next hurdle to provide resistance could be the 84.85 line, marked by the recent highs and the inside swing low in early April.
Summarizing, the picture has turned neutral with the formation of successive lower lows and lower highs. For the outlook to turn firmly negative, traders might need to see a slide below the 200-day moving average.
