NZDUSD is tracing the lower Bollinger band and is just shy of retesting the 16-month low of 0.6528, which is the upper border of the critical 0.6487-0.6528 foundation, moulded by the troughs over the mid-July until end of September 2020 period. The rolling over of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is hinting that downward pressures are strengthening, while the longer-term 100- and 200-day SMAs continue to sponsor a bearish trend.
Presently, the short-term oscillators are skewed to the downside, reflecting that sellers are in command. The MACD, south of its zero threshold, is suggesting that negative momentum is strengthening, while the RSI has slid into oversold territory. Meanwhile, the stochastic oscillator, which is in the oversold region, is signalling that buyers are pushing back but have yet to overpower the prevailing negative tone in the pair.
In the negative scenario, downside limitations could commence from the lower Bollinger band at 0.6545 prior to the 0.6487-0.6528 tough boundary. Downside risks are likely to increase in the event that sellers defeat this crucial base, which may then result in the bears aiming for the 0.6342-0.6380 support barricade that stretches back to early March 2020. Diving below the latter obstacle, which includes the lows from the second half of June 2020, the pair could then steer for the 0.6239 mark before the door opens for a test of the 0.6239 support border.
Otherwise, if buyers retake control and drive the price over the 0.6600 handle, nearby resistance could transpire from the 0.6629-0.6665 zone (previous support-now-resistance). If buying interest strengthens further, the 0.6714 inside swing low may try to delay buyers from taking a crack at the resistance section existing between the 100- and 50-day SMAs at 0.6767 and 0.6812 respectively. Successfully conquering these averages, the pair could then challenge the 0.6862-0.6900 resistance section, which encapsulates the 200-day SMA as well.
Summarizing, NZDUSD is exhibiting a neutral-to-bearish bias below the 0.6714 low and the SMAs. A break below 0.6487-0.6528 could bolster the downward trajectory, while a climb in the price north of the 0.7033 high may reinforce belief in a positive outlook.
