The dollar continues to trend higher and hit new two-year high on Monday, with recent rapid rise being underpinned by safe-haven buying and expectations of more aggressive Fed.
Growing uncertainty over the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine and its possible escalation, prompts traders out of riskier assets into safe-haven dollar, while markets bet on stronger than expected action from the US central bank in tightening monetary policy in attempts to tame raging inflation, as the rhetoric from the US policymakers becomes more hawkish lately.
The dollar index rose over 5% since the war in Ukraine started, with strong acceleration seen in April that marks the biggest monthly advance since May 2010.
Strong uptrend can extend towards March 2017 high at 102.26, the last obstacle en-route to key barriers at 103.80 (peaks of Jan 2017 / Mar 2020), as bulls so far show no signs of fatigue, with fundamentals being dollar’s main driver and remaining strongly supportive.
Overbought studies warn of minor price adjustment which should stay above psychological 100 support and offer better levels to join the uptrend.
Res: 102.00; 102.26; 102.71; 103.00
Sup: 101.51; 101.00; 100.78; 100.34
